Selectman Tim Clark, Really
Selectman Tim Clark gave me pause to consider Vicksburg Square's viability. Tim Clark addressed finances, housing, schools, municipal services and general impact on the community in a statement reported in the Harvard Press. I am not sure what community is addressed in his remarks but I assume it is the entire Harvard community.
Economic viability is judged as inadequate “high density residential development is a poison pill for Devens unless it is mostly/all market rate and can 'pay its own way' for the increase in municipal service it creates.”
I am really interested in finding any residential development, that welcomes children, that can 'pay its own way'. The proper question applicable here; does this Trinity development move forward now or do we put off a decision and gamble on a better deal years down the road? A better deal down the road would really require high retail value for units developed, moderate bedroom footprints to limit the impact of school age children and increased parking to deal with the more affluent residents of these higher end units. Is residential values going to double in a few years? If you think so I have a unit to sell you.
Let's just speculate on what a development like this would look like.
Fewer units would most likely mean higher bedroom density. 75% market rate with 25% at 80% of median income. It is my understanding that 80% of median income would not allow the developer to claim any tax credits thus reducing the viability for a future developer. The best choice for a developer would be all market rate. I do not factor “senior housing” as there are no assurances that a future developer would go in this direction.
All market rate - What would 300 units, 30 1 bedroom, 220 two bedroom and 30 three bedroom all market rate look like? Let's estimate an average unit value of $350,000 generating $1.38 million dollars instead of $210,000 projected by Trinity. Student population might look like 0 children in 1 BR, 110 children in 2 BR and 50 children in 3 BR for a total of 160 children. Let's estimate that 130 of the 160, are school age. 130 x $9,700=$1.26 million with 130 x $13,000=$1.69 million. With these number we can approach but not reach cost neutral.
75/25% split - What would 300 units, 30 1 bedroom, 220 two bedroom and 30 three bedroom 75%/25% look like? Let's estimate an average unit value of $350,000/$200,000 generating $1.23 million dollars instead of $210,000 projected by Trinity. Student population might look like 0 children in 1 BR, 120 children in 2 BR and 60 children in 3 BR, for a total of 180 children. Affordable units tend to have slightly higher school age children percents. Let's estimate 145 of the 180 are school age. 145 x $9,700=$1.41 million with 130 x $13,000=$1.89. We do not get close to “pay its own way” with this scenario. We have not even considered any other municipal services yet.
It appears to me that to try to judge any residential development's acceptability on the revenue neutral test is pointless. If Harvard's planning board had this as a test then NO residential developments would ever be approved.
Selectman Clark decries the absence of retail services at or near Vicksburg Square. Let's compare Town Hall on Elm St Harvard and Vicksburg Square on Buena Vista Blvd Devens as two destinations for the following services:
|
Access to Service |
Town Hall - Elm St Harvard |
Vicksburg Sq. - Buena Vista Devens |
|
Gas Station |
6 min, 3.56 mi |
1 min, 0.5mi |
|
Car Wash |
7 min, 3.84mi |
1 min, 0.5mi |
|
Banking Services |
4 min, 1.75mi |
1 min, 0.5mi |
|
Dry Cleaning/tailor |
3 min, 1.53mi |
1 min, 0.5mi |
|
Taxi |
7 min, 3.84mi |
6 min, 2.66 mi |
|
Food (Hannafords) |
12 min, 5.65mi |
6 min, 2.68mi |
|
Fresh food vegetables etc. |
9 min, 5.1mi |
6 min, 2.68mi |
|
Duncan Donuts |
3 min, 1.53mi |
1 min, 0.4 mi |
|
MBTA Train |
10 min, 4.78mi |
4 min, 1.85mi |
|
Wine Market |
1 min, 0.1 mi |
5 min, 2.01 mi |
|
Septic Services |
1 min, 0.2mi |
All Sewer - 0 min, 0mi |
|
Pizza Shop |
4 min, 1.67mi |
1 min, 0.4mi |
|
Barbershop/Hair Salon |
7 min, 3.85mi |
1 min, 0.4mi |
|
Churches |
Multiple near |
Nearest 5 min, 2.0mi |
|
TOTALS |
74 min, 37.4mi |
37 min, 17.4mi |
The assumption that Vicksburg Square rental families and senior couples will not have a vehicle is just a wee bit far fetched. Do current families in Harvard, at or near the same economic strata walk everywhere? Or do they have a vehicle to travel the 74 miles to the listed services. Seems that future residents of Vicksburg Square have a far better chance of doing without a vehicle than any other inhabitants of this region.
Parking – Rogers Field is a blessing for this area but again it seems a bit of a stretch to hold their parking up as a reason to block the development of Vicksburg Square. There appears to be plenty of opportunities to create parking options on Devens. Maybe there will evolved a shuttle bus service to serve Rogers Field during use, paid for by the using organizations or via fares. If there is a design flaw in Trinity's creation of parking for the senior units then raise the issue forcefully with them. By the way, the affordable units created by Aspen Squares in the condos in 2001 did not allow any parking or garage space for affordable units. The creation of 400+ parking spots for 246 units seems adequate to me. Yes Devens residents do barricade driveways for safety reasons, the recreation department barricades the roadways for their reasons, which I am told is for crowd control and to prevent stopping or parking on Elm Rd. We live here and are working through the issues that come with such a large recreational enterprise. In this case and I think in most cases residents of Devens should deal with issues that arise from activities in their community. We do not offer solutions or fuss about parking on the Harvard Town Commons when there is an event there. We feel that residents that live in Harvard Center can deal with that.
Changes to housing balance – What balance are we talking about? The original plan for Devens was to create a community with a far different balance of affordable to market rate that exists in any surrounding community. If we as a community feel that the balance as well as the benefits that the Vicksburg Square project brings is in our best interest then our wishes should be honored. “The housing cap should not be raised.” Really, what interest are you trying to protect? We need an appropriate and reasonable residential base here. To argue that 282 is appropriate is self serving and flat wrong. Devens can eventually grow to accommodate 1,000 on the conservative side to 1,250 at full utilization of appropriate residential space. As a Devens resident and activist it seems to me that housing is just a big political “football.” We can appropriately fit the housing. Question is can Harvard and Ayer deal with the political reality of that many voters. Is it just fear that would come with shifting politics driven by a large Devens residential base? I think so!
School Impact – The last ghost in the fear closet. Tim really, give up a contract that generates over $13,000 per Devens student and go back to welcoming choice students at $5,000.
In conclusion, set us on a path to freedom, let us govern our own community. If you have this many fears about Devens then “Let us go!” If you want to welcome us into the family of Harvard then start REALLY listening to all of us and stop telling us what is good for us.